Obsolescence in an economic, historical and societal context

In this article, we return to one of the primary factors in obsolescence, namely the spread of technological progress, i.e., innovation, which can reshuffle the deck via the phenomenon of creative destruction. This spread of innovation is driven by economic "stimulants": economies of scale and experience effects naturally feed the spread of innovation, with a complementary virtuous relay often sought in the internationalization of outlets, as part of the growing specialization of companies and regions. This game of innovation and the search for "critical size" acts as a powerful reorganizing factor in the competitive field, influencing the life cycle of technologies, companies and product ranges. In this sense, it weighs on the durability of companies and can be a factor in obsolescence.

The combination of these phenomena has been in full play since the first industrial revolution and in the post-1945 world. Growth has been driven by the progressive internationalization of economies, against a backdrop of accelerating technological development. The result is an increasingly internationalized and specialized production system, with ever more important players defining an increasingly interdependent system. This is followed by the emergence of major economic powers with increasingly integrated domestic markets, and the development of trade between them. China's emergence over the past 40 years as a new major player in the global production system, integrated in a game of exchange and growing rivalry with the United States and the European Union, is a case in point. The emergence of the electronics industry and the successive reorganization of production worldwide are also emblematic examples of the forces at play. From this point of view, the production system for systems and objects appears to be highly collaborative, without all the players having consciously acted in this direction. This has enabled each of the system's major players to develop their effectiveness and optimize efficiency. Nevertheless, the factors of mutual dependence have greatly increased, with the associated risks of obsolescence. In this sense, "going backwards", towards regionalization between countries, will present a technical and economic challenge in many cases.

The new challenges of preserving peace and commercial collaboration between major countries, as well as the climate challenge, could call into question some of the gains of recent decades, and weigh in the future on the intensity and sources of obsolescence.

In the first part, we'll see how the acceleration of innovation since the Industrial Revolution and its diffusion have had such an impact on the acceleration of obsolescence, and have made modern economies globally more sensitive to the risk of obsolescence....