Overview
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ABSTRACT
This article is intended to explain and to analyze all the factors which come into play in shaping the uranium market. We point out all the principle data relative to the resources of uranium on the earth; in particular their nature and associated quantities such as are estimated today. For that purpose, we define the various categories of resources by including the "conventional" and "non-conventional" resources. The physical principles which determine the quantities of uranium consumed in nuclear reactors are then discussed. For that purpose, we indicate some orders of magnitude and basic data concerning the performances of the use of natural uranium in the nuclear fuel cycle as well as in the current and future nuclear reactors. We then examine the past evolutions of the production of uranium, as well as the availability of various forms of uranium stocks in the world. On this basis, we present an overview of the main producers of uranium in the world. The last section discusses the issues of the global uranium market as it currently stands: historical data and key market players. We then discuss the economic aspects, by focusing on the available data concerning production costs and market prices as they are applied on the “spot” market and on the long-term market of uranium. The article ends by giving some consideration to the future trends of natural uranium availability as a function of the possible scenarios for the development of nuclear energy.
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Read the articleAUTHORS
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Dominique GRENECHE: Doctor of Science - Consultant (Nuclear Consulting), International Expert
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Anne CHAUVIN: Engineer - Nuclear Fuel Division – Direction production ingénierie – Électricité de France
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Frédéric LAUGIER: Engineer - Nuclear Fuel Division – Direction production ingénierie – Électricité de France
INTRODUCTION
Uranium, like any other energy source such as coal, oil or gas, is a naturally occurring substance contained in the earth's crust (or seawater in the case of uranium). It can therefore be harnessed to provide energy, thanks to installations known as "nuclear reactors", which fission the nuclei of uranium atoms, releasing enormous quantities of heat. This heat can then be recovered directly or transformed into electricity. This metal has been known for over two centuries, but was virtually ignored until March 1896, when French physicist Henri Becquerel discovered the then mysterious phenomenon of "radioactivity" and identified its origin: uranium (at the time, he dubbed these strange uranium emanations "uranic rays"). However, it was in December 1938 that uranium became a particularly coveted material, when the process of fission of uranium atomic nuclei was discovered in Germany. This attraction became a real fascination for scientists of the time, when they realized that this process could not only produce energy, but could also be used to make atomic bombs (albeit at the cost of complex transformations). Today, uranium is sought after and exploited for its energy applications, and with the development of "nuclear energy" for power generation, it has become an essential, even strategic, raw material for many of the countries that use it. It is therefore the subject of a global market governed by complex geopolitical and technical factors, given the great diversity of the players involved. These players are first and foremost the countries that possess the resources, then the companies or organizations that exploit them, and finally the customers who buy the uranium to run their nuclear reactors. This article examines the various components of this market from a technical and economic standpoint.
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KEYWORDS
market | Uranium | consumption | scenarios | resources
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