Analysis and energy outlook

Energy is essential to life and economic development. Modern civilizations have developed over the last two centuries or so thanks to fossil fuels, which have provided cheap, concentrated sources of energy. Fossil fuels cover around 80% of the world's energy needs, but are in finite supply. Moreover, the use of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide, which increases the greenhouse effect. The energy challenge facing mankind today in the energy field is to reduce CO ₂ emissions and, gradually, to substitute fossil fuels with other energy sources that do not emit CO ₂ (known as decarbonized). To meet this challenge, we need to save energy, use more efficient devices and develop decarbonized energy sources (renewable and nuclear) on a large scale. The main uses of energy are, in descending order of consumption, thermal power generation, transport and electricity.

Worldwide, most electricity is generated from coal, but this energy carrier can also be generated from virtually any energy source, including decarbonized sources. Transport, on the other hand, relies almost entirely on oil. As far as heat and cooling are concerned, we could, in principle, do without fossil fuels in the future.

The energy sector does, however, have one weakness: storage. A great deal of progress remains to be made in this area, which is essential for harnessing intermittent energy sources.

Housing and transport consume a large proportion of the world's energy. Significant energy savings are possible in housing. For transport, on the other hand, the problem is more difficult. Hydrogen, the energy carrier on which many were betting in the short term for transport, will be most useful for manufacturing liquid fuels and petrochemicals, even though the first fuel cell cars are now being marketed in Japan. It should also be noted that the quantity of energy that a source can deliver is not the only important parameter, and that some industrial applications also require high power to be delivered continuously, something that many renewable sources are unable to provide.

We are currently witnessing a global energy transition that should lead in the long term to greater use of renewable energy sources, leading to a degree of decentralization of energy production, with significant use of digital information processing and digitization (smart meters, big data, etc.) in an increasingly intelligent power grid (smart grid).

In addition to the gradual scarcity of fossil fuels, there is also the gradual scarcity of certain mineral resources needed to build new energy systems. These systems are increasingly dependent on scarce, non-renewable mineral...