3. Conclusion

The market for stand-alone photovoltaic systems, for which there is no comparison with the cost of grid electricity, could be satisfied for a long time with crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell technology, the cost of which is gradually falling.

In fact, we estimate that in the stages of the conventional cell production process leading from the silicon charge to the solar module, cost reductions will mainly result from the learning curve already observed, according to which manufacturing costs fall by 20% each time cumulative production doubles. Coupled with better organization of production and automation of machines and transfers, this curve should lead to asymptotic costs of €1.5/Wp for cumulative world production of 20 GWp in 2010. This asymptotic cost limit would enable electricity to be produced at €0.33/kWh in distributed systems and €0.16/kWh in centralized...