9. North America, the new Middle East?

This was the somewhat provocative title of an article by Edward Morse , an acknowledged specialist in the oil industry, and the US industry in particular. Indeed, by 2020, US liquids production plus US imports from Canada could reach 20 million barrels a day, while demand remains stable at around this figure.

The stagnation of demand is due to several factors:

• rising fuel prices: a gallon of gasoline is approaching $3, compared with $1 15 years ago;

• stricter CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) consumption standards, which increase the number of miles a vehicle must travel...