Vulnerability analysis methods for industrial sites

The attacks on the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York, USA, on September 11, 2001, marked a change of dimension in terrorist methods. In particular, they highlighted the potential threats to economic activities.

Subsequent terrorist attacks have focused on public transport (Madrid in 2004, London in 2005), shipping (USS Cole and Limburg in Yemen in 2000 and 2002) and industry, with the attempted suicide bombing of the Baqiq refinery in Iraq in 2006.

In addition to terrorist threats, malicious acts in the industrial sector have also demonstrated their threat potential. In France, severe industrial disputes involving site occupation by employees and threats of environmental damage have received particular media coverage: Cellatex in 2000 (threat of toxic product spills into the environment), Daewoo in 2003, Sublistatic in 2007 and New Fabris in 2009. Far from being isolated, malicious acts account for over 10% of technological incidents.

In the aftermath of these attacks, vulnerability analysis guides were published in the United States for various sectors, including the chemical industry, due to the potential danger inherent in its storage, production and handling activities. Indeed, an attack on a chemical site, such as France experienced on its territory in 2015 (Air Liquide, St Quentin Fallavier on June 26 and LyondellBasell, Berre l'Etang on July 14, even if these attacks did not have the expected scale), could affect the surrounding population and generate a disruption of the local, or even national, economy. Chemical sites also need to guard against acts of theft, as they can be a significant source of explosive precursors and chemical weapons.

The aim of this article is to present different vulnerability analysis methods for industrial sites, without claiming to be exhaustive.

We'll start by looking at the nuclear and hazardous materials transport sectors, where vulnerability analysis is more prescriptive, given the homogeneity of the installations in one case, and the homogeneity of the transport mode in the other.

We will then present the vulnerability analysis methods mainly developed in the United States, including the method developed by the CCPS, which has inspired several methods and been adapted to the French and European context.

Finally, we will describe methods parallel to those of the CCPS developed in the United States following the attacks of September 11, 2001.