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Gilles ZWINGELSTEIN: Engineer, École nationale supérieure d'électrotechnique, d'électronique, d'informatique et d'hydraulique et des télécommunications de Toulouse (ENSEEIHT), Doctor of Engineering, Doctor of Science, Retired Associate Professor, Université Paris Est Créteil, France
INTRODUCTION
This article presents the various steps, methods and data required to carry out a predictive operational safety analysis of complex industrial systems. Given the importance of the consequences of failures on availability, people and the environment, manufacturers are increasingly concerned with carrying out studies to predict the level of operational safety for existing installations or those under design. A predictive operational safety analysis of a complex system can be broken down into several main stages: structural and functional analysis of the system, followed by qualitative and/or quantitative analyses based on available feedback data. The first section describes the flowchart of tasks and analyses to be carried out in order to draw up a predictive operational safety analysis file. It is used to check that the results obtained from the various analyses comply with the specifications defined in the user's specifications. The second section, after a reminder of the aims of value analysis, presents the main functional analysis methods used to identify the functions of a complex system based on structural models. Knowledge of these functions is essential to identify the failure modes which, through their effects, will lead to failure. The principles of the FAST, RELIASEP ® , SADT ® , IDEF0 and APTE ® functional analysis methods are briefly described. The third section is dedicated to a typology of classical predictive analysis methods. It defines deductive and inductive methods, and describes the characteristics of qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, quantitative methods assess the parameters associated with dependability. They use human reliability data and reliability databases, which will be presented in this article. Qualitative methods include FMECA, PRA, MCPR and HAZOP. Quantitative methods under development include: reliability diagrams, truth tables, consequence trees, cause-consequence diagrams, bow ties, state spaces and Markov processes. To take account of developments over the last two decades in the field of predictive analysis in operational safety under the names of "condition-based-monitoring-CBM", "diagnosis, prognostics and health management (PHM)" and "RUL - remaining useful life", the fourth section will present these advanced methods. They have been developed specifically to diagnose and prognose failures. Their ultimate purpose is to predict the service life before failure (DEFAD) and its probability (noted as "DEFAD-RUL" in this article). Numerous methods have been developed for estimating DEFAD-RUL, and will be briefly described here. They include model-driven, data-driven, experimental and hybrid methods. These call on classical statistical...
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Operational reliability
Bibliography
Software tools
EDRAWSOFT
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...Websites
IMDR, portal of the Institute for Risk Management, operational safety-management-cyndinics
AFNOR, portal of the French Association for Standardization
IEC, portal of the International electrotechnical...
Standards and norms
- Value management – Vocabulary – Terms and definitions - NF EN 1325 - Avril 2014
- Guide pour l'élaboration d'un cahier des charges fonctionnel (expression fonctionnelle du besoin) [annulée le 20 décembre 1991] - X50-151 - Juin 1984
- Analysis of failure modes and their effects (FMEA and FMEA) – Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) - NF EN IEC 60812 - Octobre 2018
- Risk management – Risk assessment...
Other regulations
- Procedures for performing a failure mode, effects and criticality analysis - MIL–P–1629 - 1949
- Procedures for performing a failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis - MIL-STD-1629A - 1980
- Military handbook : reliability prediction of electronic equipment - MIL-HDBK-217F (notice 2) - 1995
- Potential failure mode and effects analysis in design (design FMEA), potential failure mode and effects...
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