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3. Quantitative methods
Quantitative methods are based on the study of past achievements, and make the assumption that the behavior of past achievements will be repeated in the future.
This chapter describes some quantitative methods and gives examples of forecast calculations using each of them.
3.1 Causal or explanatory methods
Causal methods establish a cause-and-effect relationship between the variable to be predicted (explained variable) and one (or more) explanatory variable(s) (exogenous variables).
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If the relationship is linear, and can be explained by a single explanatory variable, we speak of a "simple linear regression" model, which can be written as :
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